Saturday 9 May 2015

The State of Ukraine

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The following is an interview with Taras Kuzio, a leading expert on Ukraine and post-communist politics.
MOTYL: You’ve just completed a tour of the Ukrainian territories adjoining the Donbas enclave controlled by Russia and its proxies. What are some of your key conclusions?
KUZIO: Since the Euromaidan Revolution I’ve made six visits to southeastern Ukraine for research on a book on the Donbas (supported by the US-based Ukrainian Studies Fund). My just-completed visit was to Mariupol and Volnovakha, which is on the road to Donetsk and 20 kilometers from the front line. I have also visited Donetsk (during the Euromaidan) as well as Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, both of which have been controlled by Ukrainian forces since summer 2014. The visit to Mariupol was with four journalists (two from Kharkiv, one from Kyiv, and one from Lutsk). It was funded by the EU through the Association of Polish Journalists and the TeleKrytyka Ukrainian media monitor and coordinated by Yuri Lukanov, president of the Trade Union of Independent Journalists of Ukraine.
The eight Russian-speaking Ukrainian provinces that comprise Vladimir Putin’s “New Russia” project can be divided into three parts. The first consists of Luhansk and Donetsk, which are similar to Crimea in that they have a Soviet identity and a third of the population supports separatism (either independent statehood or union with Russia). The second consists of Kharkiv and Odessa, which are swing regions that experienced street battles in spring 2014 that were won by pro-Ukrainian forces backed by Kyiv. The third consists of the four clearly pro-Ukrainian regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya, Kherson, and Mykolayiv. Putin’s “New Russia” project failed to take into account these regional differences. He remains unable to comprehend the very notion of a patriotic Russian-speaking Ukrainian, because in his imperialist mind-set to be Russophone means to be Russian. Putin’s views are strikingly similar to Nazi pan-Germanism.
In most of the regions I visited, the population can be divided into three more or less equal groups: those who support Ukraine, those who are neutral and only want peace, and those who support Russia. Today, the vast majority of activists are pro-Ukrainian due to the fact that a political and social vacuum was created after the Communist Party and pan-Slavic groups either fled to the self-styled Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) or disintegrated, as in the case of the Party of Regions. Many in the pro-Russian camp are deeply demoralized. In spring 2014, when the separatist disturbances first began, there was euphoria among the pro-Russians, who believed that Putin would invade and annex much of Ukraine’s southeast, just as he did Crimea. When he didn’t and Ukraine fought back, the euphoria collapsed.
MOTYL: So the pro-Ukrainian forces have the upper hand?
KUZIO: Yes, in western and southern Donbas and in northern Luhansk. Putin and the separatists not only did not capture “New Russia”: they only control a third of the Donbas. To pursue your comparison of the Donbas with the postbellum American South: with the pro-Russian pan-Slavists, Communists, and Regionnaires leaving the scene, space was opened for the repressed and marginalized Ukrainians to come out of the shadows. Ukrainian NGOs are very active in Mariupol and Slovyansk, and the main one in the former, New Mariupol, is run by Professor Mariya Podybaylo, originally from Ternopil. Women are playing a leading role as civil activists on the front line: such as those we witnessed sewing sniper camouflage and painting road block-posts. Journalist Olena Mokrynchuk heads the Volnovakha-based “Soldatska Poshta” [Soldiers’ Mail] NGO.  These pro-Ukrainian forces have the support of the military, the National Guard, and the Security Service, which has been filled with new patriotic personnel since the Euromaidan.
MOTYL: How do average residents view the ongoing crisis?
KUZIO: It’s important to remember that Mariupol is billionaire oligarch Rinat Akhmetov’s factory town. Essentially, the workers are 19th-century serfs who work in inefficient and heavily polluting Soviet-era factories (one is nine miles long!), are desperate to hold on to their jobs, decide nothing, and have zero voice. Akhmetov wants the factories to continue operating so he can keep sending his large profits to offshore tax havens. If the DNR takes control of Mariupol, his plants will be destroyed or closed. (And these furnaces, if closed, cost millions of dollars to re-fire.) Some people might not like Kyiv, but they do not want war, which they know leads to death and destruction. At the same time, voters are, as in Soviet times and when the Communists or Regionnaires had a monopoly of power, ordered to vote for whomever Akhmetov supports. In 2014 that was the Opposition Bloc, which largely consists of ex-Regionnaires. The remarkable thing about many of the people in the areas of the Donbas I visited is that, no matter how badly the Regionnaires or ex-Regionnaires treat them, the people have a Stockholm syndrome and still vote for them.
MOTYL: What’s the mood like among Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers?
KUZIO: We visited the district center of Volnovakha, which is full of Ukrainian troops in high spirits and eager to do battle. I was impressed by their high morale. The highly motivated volunteer Donbas battalion is also in the area. The main base of the volunteer National Guard (Ministry of Interior) Azov battalion is in Mariupol; most of its members are 18- to 22-year-old former Euromaidan activists, students, and soccer ultras who would fight to the death. They believe they could retake Shyrokyne, but are constrained by Kyiv’s weak political will.
MOTYL: Is appending the modifier “neo-Nazi” to Azov warranted?
KUZIO: We visited the base and met with their press officers. Two thirds of Azov are Russian speakers from eastern and southern Ukraine and the largest foreign contingent are 50 volunteers from Russia. Only 5 percent of Azov are members of the Social National Assembly and the Azov therefore are hardly the stuff of Nazis. For most people, Azov is a guarantee against the DNR coming to the region and bringing death and destruction with it. Russian-speaking locals will often pay the bills of Azov members in coffee bars and bring the humanitarian assistance to their base. Azov is the locals’ guarantee that Mariupol won’t come to resemble Donetsk airport or Debaltseve.
MOTYL: Are people thinking of leaving if the instability continues?
Kuzio: Those who have been able to leave Mariupol have done so. Both Volnovakha and Mariupol include refugees from the DNR who live in limbo and are reliant on civil society humanitarian (rather than Ukrainian government) assistance.
MOTYL: What do people expect Russia to do next?
KUZIO: Nobody knows what will happen because the decision lies in one man’s hands. Fortifications are everywhere: on the beaches, fields, and roads, showing that Kyiv is actively preparing for a potential invasion. But for Putin to establish a land bridge to Crimea would mean a risky escalation from hybrid to full-scale war (it would require 50,000–100,000 Russian troops, not just “green men”). That would have untold regional and international ramifications.

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